👋😄 September Welcome + Market Update 📉❓
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According to the National Association of Business Economics (NABE), 72% of economists expect a recession by the middle of next year. 😣📉
Between record inflation, shocks to the global supply chain, and a host of ongoing political challenges, the American economy seems to be headed towards a recession whether we like it or not. Many economists believe we are already there depending on what economic factors you consider. Despite massive layoffs from some of the country’s largest tech companies like Microsoft, Meta, Google, and most recently, Snap, we remain optimistic that the recession will not last long and if anything, the reshuffling of talent will give rise to new players in markets ripe for disruption.
What do you think the next 6 months will look like? Share your thoughts and opinions with us!
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Inflation has peaked. Job market for juniors and Eng II will suck for a year or so like it did during COVID. People here make enough money to be relatively unaffected by recession.
Offers for Sr Eng will return to $250, Staff to $400 or so for now. Too much TC was based on stock inflation (Snap L4s making $750k) or the white-hot IPO market of last year.
Stock market bear had eliminated the days of anyone making the kind of money that was made the past 2 years until 2025 or later, but people who chose conservative companies for slightly lower offers are likely to be rewarded.
People who gambled on making it big with high risk startups will find themselves unrewarded or outcast into a poor jobs market. The great resignation is over and people will stay put. Engineers who negotiated permanent remote are at an advatange as power returns to the employer, which results both in RTO and shittier offers.
People senior and staff or above with rare skills enough to pull good offers in this environment and sense enough to not choose bad businesses or those in terminal decline like Meta are more likely than average to rewarded with huge stock growth in the next 4 years, but not before the market falls another 20-40% after the recent sharp countertrend rally. (Lay charts of the 1930s, 2000s, and 2010s through 2022 over each other and you'll see the same accelerating uptrend, meltup, drop, countertrend rally recovering half the first drop, another drop as big as the first and more, then a new, slower uptrend as it begins again.)
Product, sales, etc. will all be scaled back in times of uncertainty as long as B2B market remains like shit and everyone is pinching pennies while all the money pent up for almost 3 years is being spent in one burst by consumers. It's already spent, thus inflation has peaked.
Rising interest has begun to destroy the housing market in concert with inflation, so buyers will be scarce but no housing crisis like in 2008. Like in 2008 and 1929 and 2020, the crisis was mostly caused by government mismanagement, which will deepen the recession.
Companies which depend on the housing market or IPOs or dealmaking will not make or pay the money that's been thought of as normal. Banks and the rest don't make any profit on the centuries scale. They make small money for decades and lose it all in a few years on a cycle lasting about 80 years but which millennials have lived through an acceleration of or multiple sigma deviation in, which will make generations to come more risk averse.
The State will find an excuse to seize more power, and the United States may fracture as the Age of Disintegration is upon us and has been for years, for decades, for those with eyes to see. The average person will not be affected by it but it will be thought of as world-historical. Parts of the nation will then remain internationally competitive as every other group excludes, deports, or kills its underperformers and parasites on its resources. (Look at all the wars and genocides and correlate them with internal stability, productivity, and intelligence.)